Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

(3:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 70 yards to LV 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-K.Cole pushed ob at LV 19 for 13 yards (42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.39 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model