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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 25 for 48 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -1.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model