Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

(8:39) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model