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NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NO
51.3%
CAR
48.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (CAR): -0.063 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Alontae Taylor CB Out Knee
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Ankle
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Rib
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Rib
Marcus Maye S Questionable Rib
Ryan Ramczyk T Questionable Elbow
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Back

CAR

Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Questionable Achilles
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 14
–
CAR 22

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:44 TD CAR (5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive Holding, declined. NO 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 14:22 FG CAR (14:22) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 0 – CAR 10
  • Q2 03:00 FG CAR (3:00) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 0 – CAR 13
  • Q4 12:35 TD NO (12:35) 22-M.Ingram up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CAR 13
  • Q4 12:19 TD CAR (12:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-L.Shenault for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – CAR 19
  • Q4 08:23 FG CAR (8:23) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NO 7 – CAR 22
  • Q4 02:29 TD NO (2:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Callaway for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CAR 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 5-J.Landry.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (7:28) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-J.Landry pushed ob at NO 30 for 3 yards (23-S.Thomas-Oliver).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 33 for 12 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (14:22) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:53) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (10:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-J.Landry pushed ob at NO 35 for 14 yards (80-I.Thomas; 42-S.Franklin).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:39) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (3:00) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (:33) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-H.Anderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin, recovered by NO-4-B.Gillikin at CAR 24.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 61%

    (5:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 45-G.Ricci (56-D.Davis).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 19 for 10 yards (49-Z.Wood; 53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (1:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-G.Ricci.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (8:23) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 32 for 8 yards (25-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24. Penalty on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 42%

    (:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NO 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.