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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 19 for 10 yards (49-Z.Wood; 53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model