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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 13 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-45-G.Ricci.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model