4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 19 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model