Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 22

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 32 for 8 yards (25-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24. Penalty on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model