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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 22 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NO 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.65 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP