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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model