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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-S.Smith to CAR 33 for 12 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model