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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model