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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Thursday 2022-09-22 · 20:15 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

PIT
34.6%
CLE
65.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Wind 21 mph
  • QB edge to CLE: Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.057 vs Mitch Trubisky (PIT) -0.137 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 17
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

No players on the report.

CLE

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
CLE 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:57 TD CLE (2:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 6 – CLE 7
  • Q2 09:01 TD CLE (9:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CLE 13
  • Q2 03:55 TD PIT (3:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CLE 13
  • Q3 02:34 FG CLE (2:34) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 14 – CLE 16
  • Q4 09:33 TD CLE (9:33) 68-M.Dunn and 72-H.Froholdt reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – CLE 22
  • Q4 01:51 FG PIT (1:51) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 17 – CLE 23
  • Q4 00:09 TD CLE (:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 12 for 8 yards. Lateral to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 6 for -6 yards. Lateral to 22-N.Harris to PIT 2 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at PIT -1. TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – CLE 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 25 yards to CLE 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. Punt deflected by 28-N.Killebrew.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

    (6:00) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 17%

    (5:02) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to PIT 48 for 3 yards (95-C.Wormley).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 68%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to PIT 28 for 3 yards (55-D.Bush). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Cooper.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (9:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 54%

    (4:41) 27-K.Hunt right guard to PIT 27 for 9 yards (25-A.Witherspoon, 51-M.Jack). CLE-71-J.Wills was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (2:34) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:33) 68-M.Dunn and 72-H.Froholdt reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 39 for 7 yards (42-J.Pierre).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 15%

    (5:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-43-J.Johnson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CLE 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 49 for 4 yards (42-J.Pierre).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (1:51) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 51%

    (:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.