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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to PIT 28 for 3 yards (55-D.Bush). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.30 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model