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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model