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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 68-M.Dunn and 72-H.Froholdt reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.75 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model