4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 39 for 7 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model