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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-43-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.97 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model