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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model