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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.30 EP