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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to PIT 48 for 3 yards (95-C.Wormley).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model