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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Shotgun) 61-R.Hudson to ARI 29 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ARI-1-K.Murray at ARI 21. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model