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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 16:05 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ARI
48.6%
CAR
51.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Baker Mayfield (CAR) -0.104 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.063 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

ARI

A.J. Green WR Out Knee
Rashard Lawrence DT Out Hand
Ezekiel Turner LB Out Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Foot
Zaven Collins LB Questionable Shoulder
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Rondale Moore WR Questionable Hamstring
Matt Prater K Questionable right Hip
J.J. Watt DE Questionable Calf

CAR

Marquis Haynes DE Questionable Knee
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Thigh
Laviska Shenault WR Questionable Hamstring
Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
CAR 16

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:23 TD CAR (12:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 49-F.Luvu [99-M.Ioannidis] at ARI 33. 49-F.Luvu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 03:37 FG ARI (3:37) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 00:02 FG CAR (:02) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ARI 3 – CAR 10
  • Q3 07:46 TD ARI (7:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – CAR 10
  • Q4 11:26 FG ARI (11:26) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 13 – CAR 10
  • Q4 10:32 TD ARI (10:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – CAR 10
  • Q4 07:44 TD ARI (7:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – CAR 10
  • Q4 04:53 TD CAR (4:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – CAR 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:12) 14-A.Lee punts 60 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-S.Smith to CAR 29 for 19 yards (51-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (51-T.Vallejo), recovered by CAR-28-K.Taylor at CAR 30. 28-K.Taylor to CAR 30 for no gain (89-S.Anderson).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:58) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (44-M.Golden; 25-Z.Collins).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (7:31) 4-R.Moore right tackle to CAR 14 for -4 yards (53-B.Burns).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to ARI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 5 yards (34-S.Chandler; 27-M.Blair).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:07) 14-A.Lee punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to ARI 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin. PENALTY on CAR-30-C.Hubbard, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 1. Penalty on CAR-27-M.Blair, Face Mask, declined.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:03) (Shotgun) 61-R.Hudson to ARI 29 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ARI-1-K.Murray at ARI 21. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (3:37) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:32) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-S.Smith to CAR 35 for 9 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 32 for 10 yards (34-S.Chandler). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at ARI 22.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 22 for 7 yards (34-S.Chandler; 44-J.Jansen).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (94-Z.Allen).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (6:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to ARI 16 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).