Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

(:32) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-S.Smith to CAR 35 for 9 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.54 EP
38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model