Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 32 for 10 yards (34-S.Chandler). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at ARI 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model