Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(6:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 22 for 7 yards (34-S.Chandler; 44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model