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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (44-M.Golden; 25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model