Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 14-A.Lee punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.01 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model