Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to ARI 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin. PENALTY on CAR-30-C.Hubbard, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 1. Penalty on CAR-27-M.Blair, Face Mask, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model