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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model