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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

BUF
68.8%
BAL
31.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.256 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.109 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.203 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 26
–
BAL 20
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BUF

Christian Benford CB Out Hand
Jake Kumerow WR Out Ankle
Jordan Phillips DT Out Hamstring
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Ankle
Dane Jackson CB Questionable Neck
Dawson Knox TE Questionable Back
Mitch Morse C Questionable Elbow
Justin Murray T Questionable Foot
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Ankle
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Foot

BAL

Justin Houston LB Doubtful Groin
Patrick Mekari G Doubtful Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 23
–
BAL 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:30 TD BAL (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 10:18 FG BUF (10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – BAL 7
  • Q1 01:10 TD BAL (1:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – BAL 13
  • Q2 12:57 FG BAL (12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BUF 3 – BAL 17
  • Q2 03:44 FG BAL (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BUF 3 – BAL 20
  • Q2 00:13 TD BUF (:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – BAL 20
  • Q3 09:45 FG BUF (9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 13 – BAL 20
  • Q3 03:32 TD BUF (3:32) 17-J.Allen left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – BAL 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG BUF (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 23 – BAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (11:26) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 69%

    (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:58) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:57) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:00) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 28 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 40-M.Harrison).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 84%

    (10:40) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to BAL 21 for 4 yards (56-J.Bynes).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 89%

    (9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:00) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:35) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 36 for 2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.