4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP