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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 28 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model