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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model