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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 36 for 2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model