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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model