Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(13:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to CHI 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model