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Chicago Bears

2-2 HC Matt Eberflus
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New York Giants

3-1 HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CHI
51.1%
NYG
48.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.081 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.158 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21 14–28
–
NYG 20 13–27
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

CHI

Dane Cruikshank S Out Hamstring
Jaylon Johnson CB Out Quadricep
David Montgomery RB Out Ankle
Ryan Griffin TE Doubtful Achilles
Matthew Adams LB Doubtful Hamstring
Cairo Santos K Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Velus Jones WR Questionable Hamstring
Sterling Weatherford LB Questionable Ankle
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Illness

NYG

Cordale Flott CB Out Calf
Nick McCloud CB Out Hamstring
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hamstring
Leonard Williams DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 12
–
NYG 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 FG CHI (8:31) 10-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 05:15 TD NYG (5:15) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – NYG 6
  • Q1 01:33 FG CHI (1:33) 10-M.Badgley 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 05:24 TD NYG (5:24) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NYG 13
  • Q2 01:49 FG CHI (1:49) 10-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 9 – NYG 14
  • Q3 11:05 FG CHI (11:05) 10-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 12 – NYG 14
  • Q3 01:37 FG NYG (1:37) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CHI 12 – NYG 17
  • Q4 05:34 FG NYG (5:34) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CHI 12 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to CHI 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (8:31) 10-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (1:33) 10-M.Badgley 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 22%

    (14:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:02) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to NYG 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 35 for 5 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at NYG 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (1:49) 10-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (11:05) 10-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to CHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones to CHI 39 for 19 yards (31-M.Breida).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:32) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 83%

    (1:37) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:45) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:18) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 42 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on NYG-35-J.Layne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

    (5:34) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:15) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-31-Ja.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 93 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to CHI 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 34, RECOVERED by NYG-23-G.Brightwell at CHI 37. Penalty on CHI-50-S.Weatherford, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (:21) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →