Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 80

Chicago Bears 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to NYG 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 35 for 5 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at NYG 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model