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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 22

Chicago Bears 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 10-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model