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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 17

Chicago Bears 9 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 10-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model