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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 14 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to CHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones to CHI 39 for 19 yards (31-M.Breida).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model