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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 62

Chicago Bears 12 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model