4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 26

New York Giants 14 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model