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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 25

New York Giants 17 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model