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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 55

Chicago Bears 12 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-31-Ja.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP