Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 93

New York Giants 20 – Chicago Bears 12

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to CHI 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 34, RECOVERED by NYG-23-G.Brightwell at CHI 37. Penalty on CHI-50-S.Weatherford, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.37 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 93, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model