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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 11

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 10-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model