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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 4

Chicago Bears 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 10-M.Badgley 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP