Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 63

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

(11:48) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LV 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 19 for no gain (50-J.Griffith).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model